The People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) known as “Yellow Shirts,” as a political movement had forced the fall of the government of Premier Somchai Wongsawat with the dissolution of the People’s Power Party (PPP) and two of their other coalition partner parties, and catapulted the Democratic Party of Thailand and Abhisit Vejjajeva to power. At the present time the Abhisit government and the PAD do not see eyes to eyes and their differences, mainly philosophical and political pulled them apart even wider by the days.
The PAD protest against Thaksin Shinawatra government since 2005 led to the military coup of 19 September 2006 that toppled the elected government of Thailand. Feeling that they have achieved their goal, the PAD dissolved voluntary, but returned to the streets in 2008 to protest against the elected government of Premier Samak Sundaravej of the People’s Power Party (PPP) who was forced to resign in September 2008 by the order of the Constitutional Court of Thailand. Vice-Premier and Minister of Education Somchai Wongsawat became Prime Minister, but he was removed by a “judicial coup” leading to the election of the Democratic Party leader Abhisit Vijjajeva as Prime Minister on 15 December 2008 up to the present. The high point of PAD protest against the government of Somchai Wongsawat was the takeover and occupation of Bangkok Souwannaphuma airport and Bangkok Don Muang airport that stranded around 35,000 tourists and forced the air traffic in and out of the two airports to a standstill for weeks.
The PAD comprising media activists, social activists, academics, and leaders of worker's unions, is opposed to what it calls the “Thaksin system,” which is seen by some as “Thaksin autocracy.” The PAD also criticized the Samak government's decision to support the Cambodian government's application for the listing of the Temple of Preah Vihear as a World Heritage site. The PAD called for Thai investors to withdraw from Cambodia, the closure of all 40 Thai-Cambodian border checkpoints, a ban on all flights from Thailand to Phnom Penh and Siemreap, the construction of a naval base at Koh Kut near the border, and the abolishment of the committee which oversees demarcation of overlapping sea areas and the unilateral declaration of a Thai marine map.
On Saturday 19 September 2009 about 4,000 “Yellow Shirts” supporters of PAD led by its core leader Veera Somkwamkid attempted to get closer to the Temple of Preah Vihear area to read the petition demanding the Abhisit government to push the Cambodian “intruders” out of the vicinity of the Temple of Preah Vihear .
Now the PAD is no longer a “pure” political movement. It is a political movement only in the name, or it is a political body carrying two faces. It has transformed itself into a political party already formed, the “New Politics Party,” (NPP) with similar purpose as all other political parties in Thailand, including the Democratic Party, the Proud Thai Party, the For Thai Party…etc…, that is to win the election, to form the government and to lead the country. As a political movement, the PAD is seen as benevolent and patriotic. As political party, even bearing a different name, the PAD is seen as “another political party in Thailand” with all its ambitions that are wise or wild. And when the best days come, when the PAD political party becomes rich, it will be seen by a majority of Thai as “another Thai political party ,“ which will buy the votes from the majority of Thais who are willing to sell their votes. It is no longer a secret according to recent ABAC’s poll the majority of Thai voters are willing to sell their votes for money.
It has been reported in the Bangkok Post dated 25 January that “Maj Gen Chamlong Srimuang, a key PAD leader, insisted yesterday the alliance would continue its rally until the group's demands were met.” What are the PAD demands? They are:
- “to revoke the 2000 Memorandum of Understanding governing the Thai-Cambodian border areas,
- to cancel its membership of the World Heritage Committee, and
- to evict Cambodian villagers and troops from the 4.6 sq. km disputed areas near Preah Vihear Temple.”
On the other side of the fence, the head of the Royal Thai government Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva states that:
- “the 2000 MOU will not be revoked,
- Thailand will remain member of the World Heritage Committee, and
- no action will be taken to evict the Cambodians from the disputed areas.”
The stage is set. The PAD makes the first move by occupying Makkhavan bridge, while its ally the Thai Patriot Networks (TPN) and the Santi Asoka Sect (SAS) are encamped at Chamai Murachet bridge. On the government side, 24 companies of police or about 3,600 officers are deployed with a decisive mission to prevent the protesters from seizing government establishments, particularly the Government House and the Parliament.
Knowing the past “achievements” of the PAD, analysts and observers see PAD demands as simply a smokescreen to hide the only goal of ousting the government of Abhisit from office but, unfortunately, without a clear purpose as it had happened in the past when this group occupied Sowannaphuma and Don Muang airports . Then, the purpose was crystal clear, that is to bring down the government of Somchai Wongsawat and to force an alliance of different political parties to form a government led by the Democratic Party under Abhisit Vijjajeva. This time PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang sounds completely tamed and unenthusiastic by saying that he is “not confident of victory.” This will invite an interesting question, as to why the PAD, the TPN and the SAS organize the 25 January rally.
No one can say that it is a desperate act being undertaken by the PAD, the TPN and the SAS. But one can say with almost certainty that this is the last act. Despite all their efforts, the PAD, the TPN and the SAS have failed to incite the Thai armed forces leaders to move to their sides and to sympathize with their pleas. The mutual understanding of the Cambodian-Thai relations by the political and military leaders of both countries denies the chance for the protestors to pitch the Thai armed forces leaders against Abhisit. On the other hand between Cambodian and Thai leaders they have elevated themselves to the status of statesmen with the willingness to solve the existing problems by peaceful means, through consultations and negotiations. They have agreed to disagree. Thailand speaks about “disputed areas” along the common border between Thailand and Cambodia. Cambodia asserts that “there is no disputed area,” based on the existing international agreements, namely the 1904 Convention and the 1907 Treaty. From the disagreement, both sides have agreed that the demarcation should be left to the JBC, established under the 2000 MOU.
After all these years, if Thai people come to trust their political and military leaders, and inversely if Thai political and military leaders conducted themselves to be worthy of the trust of the Thai people, that latter can resign themselves from foreign and international affairs and focus on their own well being. Now, it is history that is long gone to take Cambodia as the hostage of Thai internal political competition. This is what Veera Somkwamkid intended to achieve, that is taking Cambodia hostage of Thai internal politics, when he trespassed Cambodian territory on 29 December 2010.
The first decisive factor is evidently the failure of Veera Somkwamkid and the TPN to polarize the Thai leadership (political and military).
The second decisive factor would be the failure of the protestors to seize public buildings in Bangkok.
The third decisive factor would be the effectiveness of the police forces and the security personnel of the government to thwart all attempts to harm and hurt the protestors and Thai public.
These decisive factors are the prescription that the 25 January rally is the final act of the PAD, the TPN and the SAS in their attempt to remove a legitimate government by military coup. But after all, it would be naïve to discount the ability and the power of the destructive forces that exploit the discontentment of desperate and unstable individuals who had nothing else to lose, but their soul. They can sell their soul to the devil, so why they cannot sell their soul to political manipulators. The chaos is needed, and the military coup is the last wish for the PAD, the TPN and the SAS to see the fall of the Abhisit government. A new history in Thailand will emerge if the efforts of shoving Thailand to go to war with Cambodia fail.
Waddhana P
Senior Analyst and Researcher on
Cambodian-Thai Relations
Institute for International Affairs, Cambodia
26 January 2011
